[Recent cotton futures market trend analysis: Is it]
Release date:[2019/7/25] Is reading[70]次

Let us first review the recent trend of cotton futures, and explain whether this is a reversal pattern by observing the price difference between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.

From a technical point of view, the second bottom is not broken as an effective bottom. The two lowest prices appeared on June 6 and July 11, respectively, at 12,720 yuan / ton, 12,750 yuan / ton. Then let us take 12,700 yuan / ton as the short-term bottom of the market. From last week's daily K-line chart, it seems to be the reversal pattern of the cross star, but when the commodity price is weak, its average daily trading volume is at 300,000 hand level, which is not a stalemate between the long and short sides for price competition. . So what is the situation? I think it should be a weak trend after the withdrawal of funds, the market shrinks after the concern about the variety declines, not the price reversal signal.

Then why did Monday rise from the original opening price of 12,980 yuan / ton to 13,300 yuan / ton, in fact, this is mainly based on the US announced that during the Osaka Summit, 110 countries will be exempted from tariffs on industrial exports to the United States, and the corresponding Chinese companies also Expressed a plan to continue importing US related agricultural products, including cotton. Now that there is more than one month left, we are about to face the seed cotton to open the scale. In theory, the futures price will show a correction. Because cotton production costs last year around 15,000 yuan / ton. We observe whether there is such space from the perspective of the current state of the industry.

On the supply side, from the domestic and foreign price indices, prices are still showing a downward trend. Last week, the average price of picking cotton in the past 7 days was 13928.57 yuan / ton, the average price of picking goods in the past 30 days was 14076.67 yuan / ton, currently 13900 yuan / ton, the average price of weekly and monthly fell -176.67 yuan / ton; CotlookA arrived in Hong Kong (1% tariff), near The average price on the 7th is 12724.53 yuan / ton, the average price of the past 30 days is 13072.84 yuan / ton, currently 12862.32 yuan / ton, the average price per week fell -348.30 yuan / ton; see the external disk decline is larger than the domestic market, from the price point of view, dragging the domestic The futures market rebounded upwards.

As of July 23, Xinjiang cotton delivery price was 13,900 yuan / ton, COT A to Hong Kong price with 1% quota import conversion price was 12,862.32 yuan / ton, its import profit was nearly 12,4004.04 yuan / ton, nearly 30 days average price 1003.83 Yuan/ton, the price of the month and month has increased by 200.21 yuan/ton compared with the decline. This is mainly due to the large drop in the price of cotton, which leads to the expansion of profit margin. Although the international market cotton can highlight the price advantage, the transaction volume is not better than the domestic market. The current is more active auctions, last week. The reserve price of the reserve cotton is 13,227 yuan / ton, and the turnover rate is above 95%.

On the demand side, the current polyester staple fiber price is 7920 yuan / ton, cotton polyester, cotton sticky price difference 6143 (last week 6079.86 yuan) / ton, 2363 (last week 2305.00) yuan / ton. The former spread widened by 155.42 yuan / ton, the latter spread narrowed -395.60 yuan / ton. Its short-term PTA skyrocketing led to the price increase of polyester staple fiber. We can see from the yellow trend line on the graph that the expansion is due to the fact that the PTO off-market derivatives of Zhongtuo P&T caused the enterprises to sell in large quantities on the disk, which caused the price to return. Of course, the protagonist of the play option against gambling has suffered a lot in this price increase, including the assets of several futures companies. Therefore, the overall view of natural fiber and chemical fiber does not have an upward basis in terms of price.

As of July 23, the current basis of the cotton period is 663 yuan / ton, the spot premium CF1909 is 945 yuan / ton, and the 9-1 price difference is 625 yuan / ton. Is this basis and the premium reasonable? It is relatively high in historical basis, which means that futures prices are undervalued. It is reasonable to say that the speculative arbitrage of the speculative discs in the market and the arbitrage of the industrial end will gradually return the futures price to the spot, but it is not as expected. The spot market is not easy to ship, and the disk price is at a low level. Even if the seller can smoothly lock the basis, the profit margin is small, and the cotton circulation cost in the market is not suitable for the fixed cost such as time storage and time. The disk was thrown. Even if there is a floating profit, the futures side is not good at the time when the downstream orders are bleak and the company does not accept the goods. In general, it is still maintaining a volatile situation.

In summary, the internal price of the industry is showing a weaker trend, and its domestic demand does not support the futures price. Although there will be more than one month to face the new flower open scale, then the seed cotton open scale purchase price will face the pressure of low prices. Overall, the main contradiction in the short-term impact on prices is still in trade expectations. If the medium and long-term industrial demand is still weak, if ICE US cotton falls below 60 cents/lb support line, domestic Zheng cotton still has room to explore. In general, 12000 still maintains a volatile situation. If stable, strong support 13000 in general still maintains a volatile situation. nearby. Therefore, the short-term recommendation of CF1909 is mainly based on shock treatment. The short-term rebound is high and low, and the 13000-13500 is still in a stable state. If you are interested in cotton options, you can also use some imaginary call options.

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