After the epidemic, I set off again. I was fortunate to be on the road of research with a group of cotton-related partners under the organization of looking for gauze. The survey site was selected in Foshan, Guangdong, downstream of cotton, because the current information has been used to examine both ends of cotton supply and demand. The consensus on the supply side is concentrated, and the differences are mainly concentrated on the demand side.

Judging from the USDA's July forecast, the US cotton production reduction is expected to be increasingly strong. In the context of the First Trade Agreement, China's national cotton reserve demand has increased procurement of US cotton. These two points support ICE US cotton's strength; The second batch of subsidies for Xinjiang cotton is in place, and the impact of the 18,600 yuan direct subsidy policy on the willingness to stabilize cotton farmers’ planting will be strengthened. In addition, there is no threat of major meteorological disasters in cotton planting in Xinjiang. In addition, the reserve cotton round entry (outside cotton) round out movement tends to be normalized, and domestic supply is basically sufficient. At this time, the focus is more on the demand side. The demand for textile and apparel has been weak for many years, and it has suffered a serious setback from external factors such as the epidemic situation and trade friction. When will it pick up?

The subjects of this survey are mainly local yarn, grey fabric producers and traders in Foshan, basically in the form of seminars. The basic content of these seminars is similar, but it is only about the current market tragic situation, such as the overall market bleak, a fabric manufacturer’s The account period has expanded from 45 days last year to 100 days ago, and many overseas reception desks are closed, but we also found some clues through dialogue and observation. For example, a research target who completed capacity expansion before the end of 19 years, a denim fabric manufacturer’s Significant changes in the source of yarn raw materials, the largest yarn trader in the Zhangcha market kept making phone calls during the communication process, and frequent trucks on traffic roads. The weaving mills in the Xiqiao market still ensured staff stability at the darkest moment, and no layoffs were planned. and many more. The author does not make too many statements about the research minutes, and combines observation, thinking, and subjective feelings to summarize the following market signs.

　　 1. The proportion of domestic yarn in the market has increased significantly. A large-scale denim fabric manufacturer in the flat market surveyed in March 19 and found that 80-90% of their yarn raw materials were imported from overseas, mainly Pakistani yarn, but now mainly domestic yarn. It is not difficult to find that as the price gap between domestic and foreign yarns continues to operate at a low level, the profit margin of imported yarns shrinks significantly compared to domestic yarns, and the market uses its feet to make a choice. Whether this advantage can be maintained in the future still lies in the interpretation of the cotton price difference between inside and outside. In the context of the normalization of reserve cotton rounds and the acceleration of the State Reserve’s procurement of US cotton, the pattern of weak cotton prices and strong foreign prices continues, and the advantages of domestic yarn will further drive the recovery of domestic cotton demand.

　　 2. There are signs of recovery in foreign trade. While domestic concerns about the epidemic have gradually eased, cotton has not yet seen a significant rebound. The big reason is the shrinking of downstream foreign trade orders. Cotton spinning companies, especially those based on foreign trade, are cautious in their operations, suspending business operations in overseas offices to ensure employee safety. However, we also learned from some textile foreign trade enterprises and some shoe-making enterprises that there are signs of recovery in foreign trade orders, especially orders from Japan, South Korea and Bangladesh. However, the development of foreign epidemic situations cannot be ignored, and manufacturers' orders and production activities still report great concerns.

　　 3. Capital is not sleeping, money continues to flow into the cotton textile industry. A new factory surveyed by a weaving enterprise was officially opened in October last year, mainly to follow the ribbed cloth market. The person in charge said that the ribbed cloth boom is still optimistic in the next few years; another research subject has plant resources and is engaged in the production of the cotton spinning industry. In addition, there are also tenants renting their idle workshops for the processing of finished cotton textiles; Xiqiao’s daily 50,000-meter-capacity weaving mill maintains personnel stability during the epidemic; coupled with the loosening of economic funds, it is conducive to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain Maintenance of inter-debt. Various signs indicate that the cotton spinning industry is still profitable, and confidence exists. Many survey respondents said that the current price of yarn and grey cloths has limited room for decline, and even a good opportunity for bottoming out is expected.

　　 The biggest fear of futures bulls is the fact that domestic apparel has high inventory, but the author believes that there is a misunderstanding in this recognition, that is, the textile and apparel industry is not equivalent to other bulk industries. From each upstream batch of cotton to its own unique “identity card number”, the market trends of different types of grey fabrics in the middle reaches are relatively independent, and the trend of the most terminal clothing is reflected. The personalized characteristics of this industrial chain cannot be ignored. Rather than saying that the apparel industry meets people's dressing needs, it is better to say that the apparel industry actually meets people's needs for personalization and fashion trends. Therefore, under the ever-changing fashion trend, the value of the apparel stocks in the past is worthless, and the fact that the stocks are high is not to be feared.

　　Based on the above signs, the author expressed confidence in the recovery of cotton demand, but after all, the industrial chain is long, and the inventory of intermediate yarns and cloth products is high. It is difficult to recover the process overnight. It is presented as a staged recovery. In addition, there is still no obvious turning point in the current foreign epidemic situation, and foreign traders are still cautious. In the long run, the demand for textiles and apparel is still based on the end consumer's willingness to buy. If the online and offline apparel retails provide eye-catching data in the later period, this will generate a positive feedback to the industry chain and regulate the prudent operation of the industry chain. attitude.